Microsoft are unlikely to include a Blu-Ray player. Even if they haven't officially declared themselves in favour of HD-DVD they are very much leaning in that direction. It remains to be seen whether the HD-DVD addon for the console will ever have the installed user base for a game to launch on that format, but I suppose it could be a possibility if the technology decreases in price or even if they were to go with a version of the console with the player built in.
Ultimately though what the 360 does have is the most units sold. If I was looking to launch a console-exclusive on PS3 I'd be keeping an eye both on the amount of consoles sold and on how well big name exclusives like MGS4 or FFXIII sold on the system, then contrast that with the number of combined units of GTA4 shifted across both systems. Then factor in any financial incentives being offered, of course.
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